2023 Upland Bird Forecast
Abreviated State Upland Bird Forecasts with links. Scroll down to necessary state, county or region maps.
4GOALS & "ata boys!"
Planning and Discussing Your Future Story Band Hunts!
191st of Species by State
Post and read "1st of Species in State" photos and hunt stories here.
20MULTIPLE SPECIES
Shoot three species in the same day - your dog is eligible for a Story Band. Four species in one day = Free Story Band!
21st State Daily Bag Limit
Post your photo and story of each 1st State Daily Bag Limit "Story Band" hunt here.
12REMEMBRANCE BANDS
"Remembrance Bands"in recognition of your dogs that have passed.
2DOGLESS
All conversations for the dogless bird hunter.
7COMBINATION LIMITS
Post and read "Combination Limit" Story Band hunts here. FREE STORY BAND!
4DOUBLE LIMITS
Post and read "Double Limit" Story Band photos and hunts here. FREE STORY BAND!
4TRIPLE LIMITS
Post and read "Triple Limit" Story Band photos and hunts. FREE STORY BAND!
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- 2023 Upland Bird ForecastThis is a July Rural Mail Carrier Survey. They say it coorelates to hunter harvest, yet it doesn't reliably reflect hatching and rearing success. A followup October Rural Mail Carrier Survey will better reflect total bird numbers. It's probable that I'll be out of state hunting when the October report becomes available. For those interested, you will be able to find it on the NGF&P website, and likely in online Nebraska news papers. I don't feel that the July numbers justify my time to copy all of their tables here, so I just included an abbreviated bird per mile in each region. On a side note, it sure would be easier to determine abundance (or lack of) if all the states utilized the same metrics. South Dakota did pheasants per mile, Iowa per 30 miles and Nebraska per 100 miles. I should have paid more attention to North Dakota counts, but there have been very few years that North Dakota bird counts influenced my decisions to hunt there. Most of the years I hunted North Dakota were exploratory or impromptu trips, and all of those were good to very good. It should go without saying that I'm no statistician. I probably didn't even spell it correctly. But all Nebraska upland species, with the possible exception of turkey, are in a sad state. If you've listened to my podcasts, you're aware that until recently, Nebraska was one of my favorite upland states. I've taken more dual limits, more often, at least partially in Nebraska, than any other state. Well, like Iowa and Kansas, Nebraska just isn't the same anymore. Unless I was restricted by residency, time, distance, or had access to private land with known bird abundance, I wouldn't bird hunt in Nebraska. At least not for a few seasons. I know they've been in drought, but I haven't found decent numbers of pheasants or grouse in at least the past five years. That's a long time to be without birds. On to the low-lights of 2023 Nebraska bird hunting: Pheasant: This year’s statewide pheasant index was lower than in 2022 and was lower than the 5- and 10-year averages. Regionally, survey results were higher in the Central and Northeast regions, and lower elsewhere. Relative abundance continues to be highest in the Southwest and Panhandle regions. Statewide, pheasant age ratios, which can be indicative of production, were generally lower than those observed in 2022. Quail: The bobwhite index was down slightly statewide compared to 2022, and was below the long-term averages. In 2023, declines were observed in the East-Central, Northeast, and West Platte management regions and were higher in the North Central and Southeast regions. Wild Turkey: Statewide, this year’s wild turkey index was similar to 2022, and is higher than the 5- and 10-year means. Increases were observed in 2 of 6 regions (Northeast and Sandhill). Prairie Grouse: The statewide index for prairie grouse was higher than in 2022. Regionally, results were mixed this year with increases in the Central, Northeast, and Sandhills regions and declines elsewhere. Almost all regional indices had confidence limits overlapping zero, indicating they were not statistically different from zero. Note: Roadside surveys aren't reliable for prairie grouse as there are minimal roads in the best areas, so the vast majority of these birds won't be noticed. That's not to say prairie grouse numbers will be greatly improved from the poor numbers last season. I would expect it will take consecutive mild winters following normal precipitation through summer and fall, and then warm, not hot, dry springs, to bring them back. Just to illustrate how bad this year is likely to be, here's an excerpt from a 2021 Nebraska opening day report: "Nebraska Game and Parks Commission staff contacted 926 upland bird hunters while making bag checks during the opening weekend. Those hunters harvested 338 pheasants, 79 quail, and nine prairie grouse. Hunter success for pheasants averaged 0.37 birds per hunter, slightly below that observed in 2020 (0.48) and 2019 (0.56)." The report says "weekend" but I hope that doesn't total Saturday and Sunday hunts together. Pheasant indices from the 2023 July Rural Mail Carrier Survey by pheasant management region. Below, is the average number of 2023 pheasant sightings per mile: Central 0.41 Northeast 1.07 Sandhills 0.07 Panhandle 0.33 Southwest 0.85 Statewide 0.58 BOBWHITE QUAIL: Northern bobwhite indices from the 2023 July Rural Mail Carrier Survey by bobwhite management zone. Below is the average number of bobwhite quail recorded per route mile: East Central 0.55 North Central 0.33 Northeast 0.25 Republican 0.37 Southeast 0.46 West Platte 0.13 NQR 0.04 Statewide (QR) 0.30Like
- 2023 Upland Bird Forecast(I guess Iowa DNR doesn't want anyone forwarding information from their site. They cry to get more hunters to travel to Iowa but I can't copy the web address for the survey or the survey maps. It's a pain anyway. Search "Iowa Pheasant Survey". An article will pop up, but you have to click on a link to get to the survey with map.) Over the years, I've spent hundreds of hours on more than a few state hunting sites and in my opinion, Iowa has the most difficult site to navigate of anywhere I hunt. Wouldn't surprise me if they won their site development as a prize in a Cracker Jacks box. RING-NECKED PHEASANT Statewide: This year the statewide pheasant index of 22.5 birds/route represents a significant increase over last year’s estimate of 19.5 birds/route. This year’s statewide pheasant population index is 17% above the 10-year trend, and the highest index in the last 7 years. Counts in the NE and SW regions were statistically higher than 2022. All other regions reported numbers comparable to 2022 with counts showing upward or downward trends, but none statistically significant - meaning there was no consistent trend in the counts within these regions; some routes increased while others decreased. Iowa research indicates overwinter hen survival, brood survival, and nest success are the major factors influencing annual changes in pheasant numbers. Statewide, the total hens (10%) and chicks (19%) counted on routes this year were significantly higher than 2022. Statewide data on chicks/brood (measure of chick survival) and age ratios (chicks per adult hen – measure of overall hen success), were also statistically higher (4% and 17% respectively) than last year, suggesting from an overall statewide perspective that winter hen survival and nest season success were better than in 2022. From a regional perspective the numbers suggest status quo trends in the WC and EC regions, with positive trends in all other regions. Overall, pheasant hunters in the Hawkeye state should expect pheasant numbers to be as good or better than in 2022 in most regions. The NW, NC, WC, and C regions show the best overall densities, however hunters in the EC and SE regions should see more birds compared to a year ago. Five (NW, NC, NE, WC, C) of the 9 survey regions reported pheasant averages of 25+ birds per route and should offer excellent hunting. Pheasant hunting last fall in the Hawkeye state was very good and this fall should be on par with last year. Given this year’s statewide index of approximately 23 birds per route, Iowa pheasant hunters should harvest approximately 300,000 to 400,000 roosters this fall. As of early September, Iowa was still experiencing very dry conditions across most of the state. If this pattern continues into October, Iowa could see an early crop harvest, with most fields harvested and plowed by the pheasant opener. Hunter success is usually very good on openers where most crops have been harvested. Hawkeye pheasant hunters could have another very good fall! Northern Regions: Counts in all northern regions exhibited upward trends compared to last year. Counts in the NE region showed a statistically significant increase and the 2023 count is the highest the region has seen since 1998!!. Counts in all three regions are above their 10-year averages. The NW region averaged 39.3 birds per route which was the highest density of any region in 2023, while the NC region had the second highest average at 31 birds/route. All 3 regions should offer good to excellent pheasant hunting, particularly around public and private lands with good winter habitat. Better counts in NW came from, Clay, O’Brien, and Osceola counties. Floyd, Kossuth, and Winnebago counties reported better numbers in the NC region, while the NE region reported the best counts in Bremer, Fayette, and Howard counties. Central Regions: The WC region reported the highest counts in the central third of Iowa with 27.4 birds per route in 2023, with the C region just a bird behind at 26.4 birds/route. Counts in the EC region showed a non-significant downward trend, suggesting populations were unchanged from 2022. The EC region reported fewer hens and broods than in 2022, which led to the lower counts. All 3 regions should offer good to excellent hunting this fall where good quality pheasant habitat exists. The WC region reported better counts in Greene, Guthrie, Sac, and Woodbury counties. The Central region reported good bird numbers in Boone, Grundy, Hamilton, and Webster counties, while the EC region reported better numbers in Benton, Johnson, and Jones counties. Southern Regions: Counts across the southern regions all showed increasing trends compared to 2022, however only the counts in the SW region were statistically higher than in 2023. Counts in SW region increased 146% and are the highest counts that region has seen in over 15 years. Counts in the SW and SC regions are above their 10-year means, while the SE remains below its 10-year mean. Hunters should see better bird numbers in all 3 regions this fall. Some of the better counts in 2023 came from Adams, Cass, Jefferson, Keokuk, Louisa, Montgomery, Pottawattamie, Ringgold, Union, and Washington counties. BOBWHITE QUAIL Iowa’s statewide bobwhite quail index was unchanged from last year with 0.8 quail/route in 2023 compared to 0.9 quail/route in 2022. This year’s statewide quail index is -23% below the 10- year average and -42% below the long term mean. Given the mild winter and lack of snowfall quail numbers were expected to increase in 2023. Good winter survival is crucial for increasing populations in Iowa, as Iowa represents the northern fringe of the quail range in the United States. Why counts were not better is a mystery, as anecdotal reports across the region report good numbers of whistling males this spring. Counts showed no statistically significant trend in any Southern region this year. Staff detected fewer broods in 2023 than in 2022, which contributed to no change in populations. The SC region reported the best overall quail numbers in 2023, followed by the SW region. Better counts in 2023 came from Adams, Madison, Taylor, Union, and Wayne counties. Hunters should focus quail hunting were there is a good mix of shrubs, ag fields, and weedy habitat. GRAY PARTRIDGE The 2023 statewide gray partridge count increased significantly (+43%) when compared to 2022. Partridge are only found in the northern and central regions of Iowa, and counts showed upward trends in all regions, except the NE region. None of the regional numbers were statistically significant, except for the increase in the WC region, meaning there was no consistent trend in gains verses losses among routes within most regions. This year’s statewide estimate is 13% above the 10-year mean and 32% below the long term mean. Gray partridge prefer the wide-open and treeless agricultural lands of the northern two-thirds of the state. The NW, NC, and C regions reported the best densities in 2023. Typically, partridge numbers increase following mild winters and when spring/summer precipitation is below normal. Better counts in 2023 came from Boone, Buena Vista, Cerro Gordo, Emmet, Franklin, Hamilton, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, Sac, and Wright counties.Like
- 2023 Upland Bird Forecast(Sorry! Difficult to copy image. couldn't fit or connect.) Ring-necked Pheasant: The total pheasant index increased by 10% in 2023 (53.3 birds/100 mi) compared to 2022 (48.3 birds/100 mi;). Indices of hens, roosters, and broods also increased (20%, 22%, and 13%, respectively) compared to 2022. The number of chicks per brood (5.0) and broods per 100 hens (92.1) declined slightly compared to 2022. The total number of pheasants, hens, roosters, and broods per 100 miles all exceeded their 10-year averages, but the index of broods per 100 hens was slightly below the 10-year average. The number of chicks per brood in 2023 (5.0) was slightly greater than the 10-year average (4.7). Though most indices of pheasants remain below the long-term average the number of broods per 100 hens in 2023 (92.1) is near the long-term average (89.7). The index of chicks per brood in 2023 (5.0) is sligh tly less than the long-term average (5.6). Collectively, this suggests good nesting and brood-rearing success in 2023. Despite the increase state-wide, trends in the pheasant index varied greatly among regions. The pheasant index exhibited triple-digit increases in the Southwest region, where the index grew 101%. The pheasant index exhibited a more modest increase in the West Central region (38%). Indices in the Central, East Central, South Central, and Southeast regions decreased by 39%, 63%, 11%, and 50%, respectively. Pheasant indices remain well below their long-term averages in all regions except the Southwest, but they are near or above their ten-year averages except for the East Central and Southeast regions. The Southwest (116.8 birds/100 mi) and West Central (63 birds/100 mi) regions had the highest indices, followed by the South Central region (54.5 birds/100 mi). These regions should provide the best hunting opportunities in the state. Gray Partridge: The 2023 range-wide gray partridge index (4.5 birds/100 mi) was greater than 2022 (3.8 birds/100 mi) and the 10-year average (2.4 birds/100 mi). The partridge index remains below the long-term average (-65%). Partridge are generally rare throughout the state but may be locally abundant. Gray partridge appear to have benefited from consecutive dry years in parts of their range. In 2023, the Northwest (14.9 birds/100 mi) region had the greatest number of partridge observed, while the Southwest (7.6 birds/100 mi), South Central (4.8 birds/100 mi), and Southeast (6.1 birds/100 mi) had more modest index values. These regions should provide the best opportunities for harvesting gray partridge. NOTE: I'll try to update with ruffed,sharptail grouse info.Like